Jobs Gain — January 2015
This news was released on February 2, 2015.
The non-farm jobs increased by 257,000.
Firstly, let me say I question the government’s numbers in general and specifically for the unemployed. As the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.
I may just write a book or a book of essays on nothing but the Federal Government and their misuse of statistics. Their and others misinterpretation of statistics.
I am writing this in response to pundits and I am sure that in the Federal Government praising their actions. It has been said of this report that the jobs were high paying.
Also, it is difficult to analyze in that in almost every case they do not account for all jobs and they do not use specific job titles.
It is worth noting that these results are in descending order, or highest to lowest. As I suspected retail sales are the most jobs. Food Services and Bar jobs were more than computer systems design, ranking number 4 and 5 respectively out of 7 categories.
#1 “Employment in retail trade rose by 46,000 in January. Three industries accounted for half of the jobs added–sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+9,000); motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000); and nonstore retailers (+6,000).”
Retail trade jobs are generally not good paying or even full-time. So 46,000 of the 257,000 jobs are not high paying. This one is 23,000. What were the 23,000 jobs? In this category only 50% of the data is accounted for.
#2 “Construction continued to add jobs in January (+39,000). Employment increased in both residential and nonresidential building (+13,000 and +7,000, respectively). Employment continued to trend up in specialty trade contractors (+13,000).”
This is a bit confusing. It is the middle of winter and yet construction jobs rose? Residential building (houses and apartment buildings) increased by 20,000. These types of jobs are generally being done by illegal aliens and do not pay well either. So, another 39,000 jobs that does not pay very well. Running total is 46,000 plus 39,000 equals 85,000 out of 257,000 do not pay well.
This one was 33,000. What were the other 6,000? So, in this category 84.6% is accounted for.
#3 “In January, health care employment increased by 38,000. Job gains occurred in offices of physicians (+13,000), hospitals (+10,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000).”
You would think that jobs in health care would pay well. Jobs in offices of physicians include, I am sure, mostly clerk and maybe some medical transcribers/billing people (which are also clerks). Again, not very high paying. Not all jobs in hospitals are high paying. I would say that most in nursing homes also do not pay that well. Since some of these may have been high paying (or decent wage) jobs I will estimate that ½ of hospital jobs were good wage jobs and the rest were not. So, 38,000- 5,000 equals 33,000 jobs that were not high paying. Running total of non-high paying jobs is 85,000 plus 33,000 equals 118,000 out of 257,000 that are not high paying jobs. Or roughly half at this point are not good paying jobs.
This one was 30,000. What were the other 8,000? So, in this category about 80% are accounted for.
#4 “In January, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up (+35,000).”
These are not good paying jobs. So, add another 35,000 to 118,000 and we get 153,000 or 257,000 were not good paying jobs. This one is 100% accounted for.
#5 “Professional and technical services added 33,000 jobs in January, including increases in computer systems design (+8,000) and architectural and engineering services (+8,000).”
In general I would consider these to be high paying but it is only 16,000. I do not know why it never adds up. I mean 16,000 is just less than half of these jobs. What were the other 17,000 jobs?
So, in this category about 48.5% are accounted for.
Let us say that all of these were high paying. So, we still have 153,000 job that were not high paying.
These are in a more general category of STEM. This may show no STEM shortage. We do not know from this how many applicants there were for each job. Generally at least 5 or more apply for STEM jobs.
#6 “Employment in financial activities rose by 26,000 in January, with insurance carriers and related activities (+14,000) and securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+5,000) contributing to the gain.”
People working in and around the stock and bond markets. I will give them the benefit of the doubt that these are generally good paying jobs. This one is 19,000 out of 26,000. What were the other 7,000?
So, in this category about 73% are accounted for.
Again, let us say that all of these were high paying. So, we still have 153,000 job that were not high paying.
#7 “Manufacturing employment increased by 22,000 over the month, including job gains in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000) and wood products (+4,000).”
Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing generated 7,000 jobs. Most of these are not that good paying, especially if they were entry level. Wood product manufacturing would say also is not high paying. Manufacturing jobs in general have been rather low paying.
This one is 11,000 jobs. What were the other 11,000 jobs?
So, in this category 50% is accounted for.
So with 22,000 more low-paying jobs added to 153,000 jobs and we now have 175,000 out of 257,000 or 68% were not good paying and that maybe somewhat low.
So, how can anyone say that overall these jobs were high or good paying, when more than 2/3 was not? This conclusion is also backed up more data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which states 66% (or 2/3), of all jobs will require only a high school diploma or less. Honestly, most of these jobs a high school dropout could do.
This analysis is based on knowing the category of jobs (not the job titles) and knowing about 167,000 jobs out of 257,000 jobs or about 65% (2/3). Strange how that 2/3 keeps cropping up.